Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Playoff Beards, Activate!

What an exciting last couple of weeks in the NHL. Both 8 seeds came down to the last game of the season. The Tampa Bay Lightning received a huge—albeit temporaryfan base boost against the Carolina Hurricanes after the New York Rangers beat the New Jersey Devils in a must win game. Both the Chicago Blackhawks and Dallas Stars appeared to be actively avoiding the playoffs, both needing a win to get in, and neither one coming through. So the Blackhawks fall into the playoffs, but at least get a chance to defend the Cup.

And now it's time to lock away the razors for (hopefully) a couple of months and let the Grizzly Adams in each of us to make his annual appearance—except for you, Sidney Crosby. You're not allowed to show that patchy mess you consider a beard ever again. Think of the children!

So here we go with playoff predictions. I'm only doing it round by round this year. None of my analysis is particularly informed. But what else would you expect? We'll start with the Eastern Conference.

Break it down!

(1) Washington Capitals vs. (8) New York Rangers: After squeaking into the playoff by the hairs on their collective chiny-chin-chins, the Rangers end up with their most favorable match-up in the Capitals. The Rangers dominated the Caps this year, with a 3-1 record and out scoring them 15-1 in those 3 wins. In fact, New York has really looked their best over the last few weeks against the top teams in the league, beating Philly, Boston (twice) and San Jose in crucial games. Of course, the playoffs are often a different story. At no point did New York beat Washington while Henrik Lundqvist played 26 straight games, and with Marty Biron still hurt, at some point the Rangers will have no choice but to start third string goalie Chad Johnson, who has all of 6 games of NHL experience. Washington's power play seems to be awakening after a season long slumber, and they'll be looking to avenge their surprising first round exit last year. Still, Washington's goaltending can be suspect at times, and New York has shown they can score against them. I don't see the Rangers lying down after fighting so hard to get in. Prediction: Rangers in six.

(2) Philadelphia Flyers vs. (7) Buffalo Sabres:  Perhaps no team was more surprising in the second half of the season than the Sabres. After sitting in the bottom tier for the first half, they were sold in January to an owner that actually wants to see them win. They then proceeded to roll their way up to the 7 seed with a 28-11-6 record since the first of this year. Philadelphia, on the other hand is limping into the playoffs, going 8-8-7 since the end of February, finishing their last 10 at 3-4-3 and ceding the 1 seed to Washington. When Sabres goalie Ryan Miller got hurt against Toronto, rookie Jhonas Enroth took over and went 4-0-1. Now that Miller is healthy, the Sabres have a very solid goalie tandem that can carry the team if the offense is lacking. Philly's goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has struggled of late, and they've even recalled Michael Leighton from the AHL to serve as a third option. Unless Chris Pronger returns and takes the series over, for the second straight year the East's 7 and 8 advance to the second round. Prediction: Sabres in seven.

(3) Boston Bruins vs. (6) Montreal Canadiens: Montreal is another team that struggled down the stretch, finishing 7-7-1 over their last 15—including a three game span where they were outscored 11-0 with 7 of those goals being scored by these same Bruins—and very  nearly handed the 6 seed to Buffalo. In fact, only a final game victory over Toronto kept them from doing just that. Boston is looking to bounce back from their epic collapse in the first round last year, while Montreal wants to put a hurtin' on Zdeno Chara. Both have Vezina candidate goalies, Montreal's Casey Price and Boston's Tim Thomas. However really the only reason that Montreal is in the playoff is because of Price. If he looks bad, than so does Montreal, and Price has twice this year given up at least 5 goals to the Bruins. Boston is much more physical, and I think Montreal's only hope is that Boston takes it too far and racks up the penalty minutes. Prediction: Bruins in five.

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (5) Tampa Bay Lightning: Pittsburgh has been playing most of the year without Evgeni Malkin or Sid the Kid. And, surprisingly, it hasn't mattered much. The Penguins are still pretty damn good this year. They were first this year on the penalty kill and third in the league in one goal game winning percentage. Tampa Bay goalie Dwayne Rolston will have to outplay Pittsburgh's Marc-Andre Fleury in order for the Lightning to have a chance. Even if Crosby doesn't return for this series, the Penguins are used to playing without him and should hit the second round. Prediction: Penguins in six.

Alright, since I haven't been paying attention much to the Western Conference this year, and the Rangers game is about to start, I'm just going to lay my West predictions on you without any reasons. I'm allowed to do that. It's my blog.

(1) Vancouver Canucks vs. (8) Chicago Blackhawks: Canucks in five.

(2) San Jose Sharks vs. (7) Los Angeles Kings: Sharks in five.

(3) Detroit Red Wings vs. (6) Phoenix Coyotes: Red Wings in six.

(4) Anaheim Ducks vs. (5) Nashville Predators: Predators in six.

All right there they are. Remember, all picks are guaranteed to be wrong, or your money back.

Game on!